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09.03.2020: Financial markets facing apocalypse. Outlook for USD/JPY, AUD/USD

March 13, 2020


On Monday, the economic calendar contains a lot of disappointing news. The negative trends in the market are mostly due to the coronavirus outbreak. The consumption of energy resources worldwide has plummeted significantly over coronavirus fears. As a result, oil prices took a nosedive. In an attempt to tackle the issue, the OPEC + members agreed to reduce oil production to 1 million barrels per day. However, last week, the US reported a record output of shale oil. The fact that North America is ramping up oil output at a time of oil price decline and trying to take the lead among energy exporters makes the OPEC+ deal useless. Amid such a background, Russia refused to make further supply reductions. Saudi Arabia also decided to hike oil output to 10-12 million barrels per day. As a consequence, oil prices have plunged sharply over the last 29 years. Excluding oil and commodity currencies, the US stock indexes also extended losses. The Dow Jones is again below the 26.000 level even before the opening of the New-York session. The US dollar index went down to the level of 94.80. It could dive deeper if the market jitters do not ease. Besides, the American currency remains subdued ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy meeting. Investors are avoiding risky assets because of a sharp decline in the stock market. So, the safe-haven assets are on top again. The dollar/yen pair was trading near a 3-year low, touching the 101.58 level. At the moment the pair is correcting upwards. However, it is likely to tumble to the support level at 96.83. The fresh report on Japan’s gross domestic product delivered a hard blow to the market. The figures indicate the start of a recession in the Japanese economy. Even before the coronavirus epidemic, Japan’s economy has seen a downward revision to -7.1% on year in the fourth quarter after the October increase in the sales tax. Economists believe that in the first quarter, the statistics will be even worse. Meanwhile, the Austrian currency is trading mixed. The AUD/USD pair kicked off weekly trade with a negative gap. However, during the Asian session, it managed to edge higher, reversing 80% of its losses. Given the fundamental background, it is not recommended to open long positions on this pair. What is more, the pair is expected to dip to the level of 0.6230. That’s all for now! We wish you profitable deals! See you on our channel with a new video in a couple of hours!

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