Betfair Tennis trading – Profit by betting or trading ahead of the curve

December 10, 2019

so the week of recording this video we
heard that Andy Murray was thinking or contemplating about retiring from tennis
now as a bit of ambiguity here there because he may still be able to continue
however if he does he’s near the end of his career anyway but it has important
implications for how you bet and trade on just about every sport that you can
imagine and that’s what I’m going to talk about in this video if you’re
interested in learning to trade on Betfair then visit the BET Angel Academy
where you have detailed structured Betfair trading courses or why not visit
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released so yeah Marie decided on the week that I
recorded this video that he was going to come out and basically say well you know
what that’s pretty much it for me and he’s gonna try and struggle on for a bit
maybe gets to Wimbledon but then he has to make a decision about whether he ends
it there or whether he goes for some quite risky surgery and then he could
possibly come back but the surgery could go wrong or you know there are many ways
of going there but he basically figured out that this was pretty much going to
be it as far as he was concerned but I have to say it wasn’t a massive surprise
because when you look at tennis players they follow it at a fairly defined path
now just over ten years ago I actually wrote an article about this but around
at the same time I did a series of interviews on radio and on TV and one of
the funny things about doing interviews is you know as you know if you’ve
watched enough of my videos I will reiterate and remind you many times that
when you’re betting your trading there’s no definite yes or no answer to anything
however whenever you do an interview everybody wants to know and have a
definite answer I remember doing one on the grand national where I was talking
about trading or trying to talk about trading and they put me up against a
clairvoyant and they were basically saying right who’s going to win then and
it’s like no it doesn’t work who you backing for Saturday’s main race
first well typically yeah you don’t have to back just one horse you can use a
technique or dutching which means you can actually back more than one horse
and decide how much you want to win or lose on part of the field so I’ll
probably back three or four on Saturday no I must bring Dean and at this point
Dean Midas touch Maynard do you do you agree with that that way doing things
Dean welcome to the program by the way yeah good morning yeah I mean I always
get asked for about four or five horses rather than obviously just point all of
you your fate in one so I agree with Peter on that but obviously my
techniques will probably slightly differ from Peters in what way you lick your
finger put up and see which way the winds blowing
no I will have a look at the the horses which which catch by name by sort of
sort of destiny I mean one of the my main whore mother and my main horses has
actually been chosen by the fact of occurrences the jockey rode the Gold Cup
winner and is very good friends with Kate Middleton and a wedding coming up
so maybe there’s a little bit of fate there and and it’s funny because you
always get pushed down that route however on one of the interviews that I
did over ten years ago I was asked will Andy Murray ever win Wimbledon and I was
actually able to give an answer to that you know and I said to them you know
there’s a good likelihood that he would and if he is going to win it’s gonna be
in this year Murray’s chances then what do you think
I think he’s done very well because obviously in the Australian Open at the
beginning of the year he had an excellent run and obviously there was an
advantage that he had against Nadal there in terms of Nadal retired but I
think that he’s actually done very well because he’s gone through a very small
dip in form but he’s recovered one woman he’s the only guy at the moment who
hasn’t dropped a set and when you look at the way that Federer and Nadal have
struggled on occasion then I think it’s it’s a very good chance I guess what
happened he won it in that year so how was I able to predict them how
does that segue to what we’ve been talking about with
Mauri in his career well when you look at people’s careers they all follow a
defined path so when I wrote the article that I wrote just I think it was ten
years ago may have been slightly more than ten years ago what actually did is
do I went through all of the tennis players that were currently on the
circuit and all of the ones that had been before I went back through the
history of every single tennis player and started to try and define a path for
their career you know when did they start
when did they retire and where was their peak and the reason for doing that was
to basically get in front of all of the what was gonna happen in their career so
you know tennis player is unbeatable at some point within their career or you
know at the top of their ability because obviously there are different levels of
players but then eventually they go into decline so what I was trying to do is
anticipate that’s decline get in front of the market start betting on their
opponent when there are very very short odds with the anticipation that they
were starting that decline so I plotted all of the data and then came up with an
article on it which was published in a magazine can’t quite remember off the
top of my head which magazine it is but I’ll see if I can get up a screenshot
for you to show that that that did happen but the reason for doing that was
to you know I’d figured out that every sports person every animal has that sort
of path so what you tend to find is that horses for example they go out as
two-year-olds flat horses I’m talking about here specifically and then they
reach a peak in and they start to go into decline
so horses peak at about four and a half years old typically a bit longer if
you’re on the jumps and then obviously horses can hang around for ages because
they can run in in handicaps from that point onwards and but if you look at
footballers the tennis players golf players cricket players they all have
definable characteristics some are different from others so for example you
look at a football team the striker is going to be more injury prone and you
know he’s gonna lose his speed before the goalkeeper who probably doesn’t get
involved in that many tackles and sits on his goal line for a big chunk of a
match so subtle differences on each individual sport but I was primarily
interested in tennis and the career of a tennis player to understand where they
are you know how how great to be able to lay
trade something at 101 and because you realize that you know they’re on the
edge of their decline or that they are headed down that path and you know it
may be a shock to some people but you know if you’re looking for those
opportunities you will probably find them so yeah analyze the entire career
of thousands of players and what you tend to find is tennis players turn pro
about 1718 so if you haven’t got ability when you’re in your teens and then
you’re never going to make it as a pro you have to be picked up found nurtured
matured and then you’ll turn pro at 17 18 now generally there’s a rapid rise
there because you gain experience really quickly and physiologically you’re going
towards your peak so that initial part of the career rockets upwards and then
you reach this age where it all starts to go into decline now for you and I the
sad thing is that that age is 25 once you’re past 25 your past your physical
peak and things start to go into reverse I’m sure if you’re double that age you
will understand where I’m coming from because things just start to go wrong
and you begin to lose your ability to do a number of things your muscles get a
bit stiff and you can’t reach as far and you’re back go you know you see all of
those ailments so yeah that’s 25 remarkably you go up
you’ve reached that peak at 25 and then you start this decline physiologically
so tennis clothes careers goes from 17 to 18 you’re at the peak in their
mid-20s because it can be a little bit earlier a bit later depending upon you
know many factors and then by the time they’re in their early 30s they’re
seriously thinking about retiring and by the time they’re in their mid thirties
they have retired now you look at Roger Federer pretty amazing to see him still
out there playing on the core but of course his peak is much higher in sort
of goes right off the top of the screen here and then comes back down on or is
coming down the other side whereas other players that going like this and you
know they will come down to meet him at some point so there are different levels
at which ability goes as well but nonetheless you can’t escape that curve
so even if Andy Murray goes and has surgery and has his hip repaired he will
then be older still when he returns he’s gonna have to take a fair chunk of time
out could return next year may not return and then he’ll be in his –
approaching his mid-30s he’ll be 10 years past
and there’ll be younger players scampering around the core reaching
balls that he can’t reach getting to them faster and your careers gone so
yeah you have that some little period of time it’s actually enshrined in law
because you can take a pension earlier if you’re a sports person because you’re
expected to have a short career you you know you can’t keep playing tennis in
Grand Slams when you’re 65 that’s not going to happen
so yeah in law you can actually take a pension if you’re a sports person at a
much earlier age because you would have used up all of your ability in those
years that you’re performing at the highest level so Nuala Kamara he’s 31
he’s passed that period the thing to note about this curve and I will bring
up the curve on the screen behind me now is that when the curve starts you get
this rapid rise and then it sort of shallows out when we sort of reached the
top when it’s at at its peak but the curve down is a little bit more gentle
and that is because you have experience you know you’re serving for match point
in a major Grand Slam somewhere to get through to the quarterfinals the semi
finals always reach some achievement when you first achieve that as a
youngster you’ll probably may not be able to pull
that off but when with experience with age comes experience and you know
therefore you can use all sorts of tricks and psychological or managing the
game a bit better or just coping with those moments a bit better and therefore
the the tale offers a little bit more shallow so yeah rapid rise a peak period
of around three years when you’re most likely to get your best results and then
it starts to decline from there so new look at the curve now you know Murray is
on the far side of the declining curve and headed for retirement whether he had
an injury or not but you also notice when you’re watching tennis that players
pick up injuries it’s much more likely when they’re past their peak on the way
up I mean I’m sure you may have experienced this as well you feel
invincible and when I used to run regularly they just have a little twinge
and I just used to run it off but when you sort of get into your 30s it doesn’t
seem to be possible and you would tend to do yourself more damage and then it
takes longer to repair as well so even if you don’t pick up that they’re on the
decline the number of injuries they’re going to get going
higher and those injuries could occur during a match during tournament and
there are other little things you can do they can pick up on that but also visit
there are plenty of websites out there that list the injuries of tennis players
and you can start to build up a pattern to see if they’re getting recurring
injuries if it’s the same item and whether they’re going to have to go and
get himself sorted out so yeah a good example of this is del potro del Potro
sand suffered significantly from injury and he’s made a comeback and then he
suffered a problem he’s had to take time out of the game to repair his ranking
drops and then he has to build himself back up and you know so players
typically follow this sort of pattern so yeah you know the way to analyze this
and to look at this look at the age of players look at where they are in their
career look at the number of injuries that they’ve got and what it allows you
to do is to skip in front of the activity within the market and
anticipate when you get shock results or situations don’t develop the way that
you expect them to but also it will focus you in on those players that are
obviously struggling and give you a sense of when they’re yeah and it could
be within the dynamics of a team or an individual sport or something it would
just give you that little heads-up in front of everybody else in terms of when
to expect those sort of shock results or slightly worse performances so yeah I do
loads of data on it I’ve narrowed it down to very fine detail and things to
look for but as a broad overview there’s a good idea for you to understand how to
roll it into a format like tennis so you know the best chance of a younger player
defeating an older player is to try and crush them in that first set they can
get that break they may be able to win the set and if they can just push that
player out on court for a little bit longer their physical ability may be
able to overcome the experience on the other side of the net so there are many
ways in which you can deploy this sort of knowledge anyhow that was something I
did best part of ten years ago but it still bears relevance today especially
with the impending retirement of Andy Murray you

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